CoreLogic Home Value Index surges with strongest monthly growth since November 2021

CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) has recorded a third consecutive monthly rise, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2% in May.

After finding a floor in February, home values increased 0.6% and 0.5% through March and April respectively.

Sydney continues to lead the recovery trend, posting a 1.8% lift in values over the month, recording the city’s highest monthly gain since September 2021. Since moving through a trough in January, home values have risen by 4.8%, or the equivalent of a $48,390 lift in the median dwelling value.

Brisbane (1.4%) and Perth (1.3%) are the only other capitals to record a monthly gain of more than 1.0%, however, the rise in values was broad-based with the rate of growth accelerating across every capital city last month.

CoreLogic’s Research Director, Tim Lawless, noted the positive trend is a symptom of persistently low levels of available housing supply running up against rising housing demand.

“Advertised listings trended lower through May with roughly 1,800 fewer capital city homes advertised for sale relative to the end of April. Inventory levels are -15.3% lower than they were at the same time last year and -24.4% below the previous five-year average for this time of year,” he said.

“With such a short supply of available housing stock, buyers are becoming more competitive and there’s an element of FOMO creeping into the market. Amid increased competition, auction clearance rates have trended higher, holding at 70% or above over the past three weeks. For private treaty sales, homes are selling faster and with less vendor discounting.”

The trend in regional housing values has also picked up, with the combined regionals index rising half a percent in April, following a 0.2% and 0.1% rise in March and April.

“Although regional home values are trending higher, the rate of gain hasn’t kept pace with the capitals. Over the past three months, growth in the combined capitals index was more than triple the pace of growth seen across the combined regionals at 2.8% and 0.8% respectively,” Mr Lawless said.

“Although advertised housing supply remains tight across regional Australia, demand from net overseas migration is less substantial. ABS data points to around 15% of Australia’s net overseas migration being centered in the regions each year. Additionally, a slowdown in internal migration rates across the regions has helped to ease the demand side pressures on housing.”

Premium housing markets in Sydney continue to lead the recovery trend. After recording a larger drop in values, Sydney’s upper quartile (the most expensive quarter) stands out with the highest rate of growth, gaining 5.6% over the past three months compared with a 2.6% rise in more affordable lower quartile values.

“Buyers targeting the premium sector of the market are still buying at well below peak prices,” Mr Lawless said.

“Although values across more expensive homes are rising more rapidly, at the end of May, dwelling values across Sydney’s upper quartile remained -11.8% below the January 2022 peak. This is the equivalent to a saving of around $213,000 from the cyclical high.

Despite the recent gains, most housing markets are still recording housing values that are well below recent peaks.

  • Perth is the only capital city where dwelling values have returned to record highs.
  • Hobart values remain the lowest relative to the city’s recent cyclical peak in May last year, down -12.6%.
  • Sydney home values are still -9.6% below the January 2022 peak.
  • Brisbane values are -9.4% below the June 2022 peak.
  • Melbourne is down -8.2% from a peak in February last year.

From CoreLogic

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